Donald Trump’s success with non-Hispanic non-uneducated white men has spilled over into the Hispanic male world. How can one explain that? Let’s look at the numbers from the gigantic poll taken by Latino Decisions of 3,729 registered Hispanic voters between August 19 and August 30.
No more stupid poll results from mainstream polling that interviews a tiny handful of Hispanics then posts the results as if they reflect Hispanic views and potential votes. This poll is so large and so professionally done by Hispanic PhDs that it only has a Margin of Error (MOE) of 1.6 percent.
No more Trump braggadocio about how Hispanics are going to vote for him in such numbers that he will carry the Hispanic vote.
It must be admitted however that Hispanic men are reflecting Trump’s success with non-Hispanic non-college educated white men.
From the beginning Trump has led among white non-college educated men. As of Labor Day, that is the single demographic unit Trump has a lead with; he doesn’t lead among college educated whites, women, Catholics, Blacks or Hispanics. He leads only among white men. His over-all Republican support is 15 to 20 percent less than what Mitt Romney received in 2012.
Back to Hispanic men; 24 percent of those registered Hispanic men polled by Latino Decisions support Donald Trump, 68 percent support Clinton. That whopping 24 percent support among Hispanic men for Trump is a gigantic 10 points higher than among Hispanic women. They give a huge 14 percent support to Trump.
Over-all 68 percent of Hispanics view Hillary Clinton “very or somewhat favorably.” Trump tubes it with Hispanics; 74 percent view Trump as “very or somewhat” unfavorably.
Predominately English speaking Hispanics break 65 percent for Clinton, 24 percent for Trump. Predominant Spanish speakers break 77 percent for Clinton, 14 percent for Trump. Native born and naturalized Hispanics mirror the language percentages.
Trump has one political accomplishment that he can be very proud of – he has motivated Hispanic voters like no other candidate since George W. Bush in 2004. Of course, Hispanics loved George W. Bush and flocked to the polls to give him 44 percent of their vote. Some Hispanics such as immigrant Evangelicals who had been in the country ten or more years gave 80 percent of their vote to President Bush.
Nothing like that will happen on November 8.
Seventy percent of those polled believe that Trump has turned the Republican Party sharply against Hispanics. Add that to his flipping and flopping on whether or not he is going to organize a storm-trooper like “deportation force” to round up “detain” (in his own words…Which would require huge prisons or detention camps) 11 million illegals plus their American citizen children and deport every single one of them at today’s cost of $12,000 per deportee and only after they have exhausted all of their legal Constitutional rights the Supreme Court has directed they have since the 1880s.
The Hispanic population is more motivated this year to vote for President than in 2012; the poll concluded that 76 percent of Hispanics polled feel that way.
Why? Two reasons: 39 percent rank immigration as their number one issue with the economy ranking second with 32 percent. More importantly, 59 percent of those polled stated they knew or were related to someone here illegally.
The poll reflects that Hispanics are set in concrete on voting in November and not voting for Donald Trump. That is “written.”
Raoul Lowery Contreras is the author of several books, including MURDER IN THE MOUNTAINS (Floricanto Press, 2016) now available at Amazon.com